Dunning-Kruger Effect

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias (creation of one’s own reality) in which people with limited skills or ability or knowledge tend to overestimate their actual performance level.

In other words, this is the psychological term that explains the old adage, “You don’t know what you don’t know.” Actually, that’s not quite correct, as high performers also experience that situation. What is more accurate would be to say, “You don’t know that you don’t know what you don’t know.”

High performing people tend to know that they have gaps in their knowledge. People on the other end of the spectrum aren’t aware of their gaps in knowledge.

A simple example of how this was studied was in assessing how people thought they did on a test before they knew their grade. People in the bottom quarter tend to think they are in the top half. In short, they don’t have enough knowledge to know how badly they did.

In the context of continuous improvement, there are a few key takeaways.

The first is that it is important to have a mentor early on in your development. This effect isn’t just based on raw talent. It also applies to people who take on new things too quickly. Extremely smart people might not stay under the Dunning-Kruger umbrella as long as others, but most will have at least a short period of over-estimating their abilities.

This impact tends to manifest when you try to make a change, and don’t understand all the nuance, and cause a problem. It is one of the many reasons that continuous improvement efforts tend to fall short of expectations.

The second big takeaway is that this is why CI zealots are so focused on using facts and data, even when they are certain of the situation. They recognize that they may be inflating their understanding, and that may bias their decision making. Collecting facts and data to confirm a situation has a cost, and often you turn out to be right. Don’t let that deter you from…

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• There is a very steep learning curve early on in continuous improvement, and it can create a false sense of security. You might be inclined to take on more than you are ready for. A good mentor or a solid blueprint for rolling out your CI efforts goes a long way towards mitigating mistakes.
• Don’t be scared of what you don’t know. Embrace it through a mantra of using a process and always checking your facts and data. A good process goes a long way towards making up for a lack of experience.

You are in a tough spot. When you work in a continuous improvement company, there is a bias for action. Your bosses will want you to try making improvements on your own. For some of you, you’ll be nervous, which can be a good thing for making you be diligent about changes.

The Dunning-Kruger effect can lead to overconfidence, though. It can be hard to reign the in, especially if you are trying to do it on your own. I recommend…

1. Get a mentor to bounce ideas off of.
2. If you don’t have a mentor, run your plan by a co-worker.
3. Make sure you…

Extended Content for this Section is available at academy.Velaction.com

The Dunning-Kruger is sometimes called the double burden of incompetence because not only do you have limited skills, but you also have limited skills to assess your incompetence.

As a leader, it is really a triple burden, as you lack the knowledge of your lack of skills to recognize your team’s lack of skills. You are responsible for your own overconfidence as well as your team’s overconfidence.

Your tool of choice should be predictions. If you are truly good at your job, you should be able to predict what is about to happen. It means you understand the skills of your team, the situation, and your own talent as a leader.

If you are consistently wrong, it should serve as a wake-up call that you are missing something.

As an example, consider daily management. It is a tool used to…

Extended Content for this Section is available at academy.Velaction.com

• The Dunning-Kruger effect is a form of cognitive bias where poor-performing people overestimate their abilities.
• The Dunning-Kruger effect is manageable, but you have to know to look for it.
• Relying on facts and data, and using processes are the best ways to identify and overcome the Dunning-Kruger effect in continuous improvement situation.